Here it is. Short and sweet. About 6 months ago, I made this prediction to friends and some business colleagues. As much as it appealed to them, they all thought I was way off–a real outlier. They could be right. But, since then I have monitored something that not even most Trump-leaning pollsters, analysts, or campaign activists seem to have thought to be significant. I did. And, I think it will determine the outcome tomorrow.
20% of the attendees at the President’s rallies, according to the campaign, are registered Democrats. Thousands arrived and the media assumed they were all Trump’s “base.” Honestly, it would have been good if these journalists did any thinking, or research.
Further, the campaign does not think these folks changed parties necessarily. They simply plan to mail in their vote or show up at the polls, and vote for Trump and whoever else.
In addition, apparently 25% of the attendees did not even vote in the 2016 election–let alone vote for Trump. Hardly his “base.” Fixed ideas can really skew one’s perspective.
As for me, I know Trump’s so-called “base” is there. But an additional 25% voting makes a huge additional vote. And if one-fifth of the traditional Democrat vote goes to Trump, that is also an additional vote.
You see, this is not about Democrat and Republican. It has always been about individual Americans choosing the person they feel best represents them.
My Prediction: Trump wins big–bigger than 2016. He also wins the popular vote.
The Democrats lose 70 seats in the House (not considered possible by political pundits. But I think voters are furious that their representative wasted time and money on phony impeachments and persecution. And the way they can show it is by removing their representative–for this election at least.)
The Democrats lose 6 Senate seats, giving the Republicans an even stronger majority in the Senate.
That’s it. Fairy tale, wishful thinking, or impending reality? We shall see.